Tuesday, December 1, 2015

The December 16th Fed Tightening -- Preemptive to a Fault


December 1, 2015

The Dec. 16th Fed Tightening – Preemptive to a Fault

Barring an outright decline in November nonfarm payrolls, the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise its policy interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on December 16. I submit that this tightening will go down in annals of Fed history as one of the most preemptive, if not, the most preemptive. I say this because the December 16th tightening will occur as a U.S. economy, short of full employment, already is losing momentum with no discernible signs of inflationary pressures. Although this quarter-point increase in Fed policy interest rates will not have a significant negative effect on nominal aggregate demand growth, it will have a marginal negative effect. The investment implication of a Fed tightening in this environment is that longer-maturity investment grade bonds and non-cyclically-sensitive equities should outperform other asset classes.

Allow me to present some data to support my case that the pace of U.S. economic activity is weakening at a time of excess unemployment and disinflationary tendencies. Consumer spending accounts for 66% of total nominal domestic spending on goods and services in the U.S economy. As shown in Chart 1, in the third quarter of this year, nominal personal consumption expenditures grew at an annualized rate of 4.3% vs. the second quarter (blue bar). This was down from the second quarter’s annualized growth rate of 5.9%. But notice that on a monthly basis (red bars), annualized growth in personal consumption expenditures has slowed appreciably from 4.0% annualized pace posted in both July and August. In September and October, annualized growth in personal consumption expenditures was only 0.9% and 1.5%, respectively. In order for this year’s fourth –quarter annualized growth in nominal personal consumption expenditures to match the third quarter’s slower rate, expenditures in the two months ended December would need to grow at an annualized pace of 9.8%, something that has not occurred since the two months ended August 2009 (see Chart 2). In the 12 months ended October 2015, the median annualized month-to-month growth in nominal personal expenditures has been 3.6%. If both November and December nominal personal consumption expenditures grow at annualized rates of 3.6%, then fourth-quarter average nominal personal consumption expenditures will have grown at an annualized rate of only 2.3% vs. the third quarter. Excluding the contraction in Q1:2015 nominal personal consumption expenditures due to the unusually-harsh winter conditions, you would have to go back to Q2:2013’s 1.8% annualized growth to find a quarter in which nominal personal consumption expenditures grew by less than 2.3%. It is against this likely backdrop of weakening and weak consumer spending that the Fed is going to raise its policy interest rates.














Chart 1
Chart 2

Further evidence of a significant slowdown in the pace of U.S. economic activity can be found in the recent behavior of the new orders index in the Institute of Supply Management’s (ISM) manufacturing survey. Chart 3 shows that there has been a relatively high positive correlation (0.66) between quarter-to-quarter annualized percentage changes in real GDP and quarter-to-quarter annualized percentage changes in the quarterly averages of the ISM manufacturing survey new orders index. In November 2015, the new-orders index dropped to a level of 48.9, its lowest reading since August 2012 (see Chart 4). The three-month moving average of the new orders index slipped to a level of 50.6 in November, its lowest reading since January 2013. The behavior of the ISM manufacturing survey new orders index strongly suggests a further slowing in real GDP growth in Q4:2015 from an already slow-growth Q3:2015 real GDP.
Chart 3
Chart 4

Is the U.S. economy near or at labor full employment? The level of the “headline” or U-3 unemployment rate might lead one to suspect so. In October, the U-3 unemployment rate fell to 5.0%, the lowest since January 2008, just as the last recession was commencing. But if the slack in the labor market has been taken up, why are “real” wages not growing faster. The real wage to which I am referring is a worker’s hourly nominal compensation relative to the unit price at which her employer sells the goods and services that she produced. If labor is getting scarce, then one would expect that nominal hourly compensation would be rising relative to selling prices of goods and services. In Q3:2015, when the average U-3 unemployment rate was 5.2%, annualized growth in business-sector hourly compensation minus the annualized growth in the price index of produced goods and services was 2.3%. Thus, real wages grew an annualized 2.3% in Q3:2015. As shown in Chart 5, the most recent 2.3% annualized growth in real wages as the unemployment rate approaches 5% is quite low in an historical context.
Chart 5

Speaking of the U-3 measure of unemployment, if people have dropped out of the labor force due to discouragement over their job prospects, the U-3 unemployment rate can fall, signaling more improvement in labor-market conditions than actually exists. In addition, some workers who are employed are only able to find part-time jobs when full-time positions are sought by them. The BLS provides another measure of the unemployment rate that captures this labor-force dropout/involuntary-part-time-employment-phenomenon, the U-6 unemployment rate. This is shown in Chart 6. In October, this expanded measure of labor underutilization had fallen to a cycle low of 9.8%. Compared with the previous two cycles when the U-6 unemployment rate fell to 6.8% and 7.9%, respectively, there currently appears to be considerable labor-market slack remaining. So, despite the current U-3 unemployment rate of 5.0%, there appears to be considerable labor-market slack remaining.
Chart 6

Yet another way to gauge labor-market slack is to examine the employment-to-population ratio of the prime-working-age cohort – those people 25 to 54 years old. This cohort typically is out of school and is too young to retire. So a large proportion of this age group would presumably be seeking employment.  Chart 7 shows that the ratio of 25 to 54 year olds employed compared to their total population stood at 77.2% in October 2015. This compares with cycle highs of 81.9% and 80.3% in the two previous cycles. Again, despite the current 5.0% U-3 unemployment rate, the employment-to-population ratio for prime-age workers suggests that there currently is considerable slack in the labor market.
Chart 7

Even if the U.S. economy is short of full employment, the Fed’s dual mandate dictates that it must restrain inflation. There currently is little evidence that inflation is at or is trending toward a threatening rate. Let’s start with the Fed’s preferred measure of consumer goods/services prices, the chain-price index of personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Chart 8 shows that the PCE price index was up just 0.2% from October 2014 and had contracted at an annualized rate of 0.1% in the three months ended October 2015. Six years into the current recovery/expansion, consumer inflation appears to have moderated to near zero.
Chart 8
Of course, one category of consumer purchases that has experienced a large price decline in recent months is energy goods and services. So, let’s look at the behavior of the PCE price index when energy goods and services are excluded, as shown in Chart 9. In October 2015, both on a year-over-year and three-month basis, the annualized inflation rate of PCE excluding energy goods and services was 1.3% and has been trending lower in 2015 vs. 2014. The Fed’s presumed target for PCE inflation is 2% annualized. So, with or without the prices of energy goods and services, consumer price inflation is currently well below the Fed’s target and is trending lower.
Chart 9

The behavior of industrial commodity prices tells the same story – inflation is trending lower. As shown in Chart 10, both energy and industrial metals commodity prices have fallen to their lowest levels since the last recession.
Chart 10
What about the behavior of the historic ultimate inflation hedge, the price of gold? As shown in Chart 11, the average price of gold in the week ended November 27, 2015 was $1068.66 per troy ounce, the lowest since October 23, 2009.
Chart 11
Let us not forget the behavior of the U.S. dollar in the forex market. In the week ended November 20, 2015, the trade-weighted dollar reached its highest level since the spring of 2003 (see Chart 12). A strengthening dollar means lower prices for U.S. imports, all else the same.
Chart 12
Of course, the Fed wants to be preemptive when it comes to containing consumer inflation. So, it might want to look at professional inflation forecasters for help in determining if the inflation genie is about to escape from its bottle. No, I am not talking about Wall Street economists when I refer to professional inflation forecasters. I am talking about bond investors. Bonds are promises to pay fixed nominal amounts in the future. If inflation rises in the future, the real value of these fixed nominal payments declines. So, bond investors have a definite pecuniary incentive to try to accurately forecast goods/services price inflation. The U.S. Treasury issues bonds that promise to pay future nominal amounts. It also issues bonds that promise to pay future inflation-adjusted amounts. This latter type of bond is called a Treasury inflation protected security (TIPS). It can be demonstrated that the yield on a nominal Treasury bond of a particular maturity minus the yield on a TIPS of the same maturity is a proxy for the annualized rate of inflation expected to prevail over that maturity period, expected by the collective wisdom of bond-market investors. I submit for your perusal in Chart 13 a limited history of bond-market participants’ expectations of coming five-year periods of consumer inflation. In the week ended November 27, 2015, the bond market’s expectation of the five-year consumer inflation rate was 1.3%. In the past 72 months, the median five-year inflation-rate expectation has been 1.8%, with a minimum expectation of 1.1% and a maximum expectation of 2.8%. The armchair professional Fed economists with job security may believe that a burst of economically-destructive inflation is imminent, but those people who bet actual money on it do not.
Chart 13



The Fed does not consider asset prices a component of inflation, but I do. So, let’s look at the recent price behavior of two important asset classes, equities and houses, to assess their inflationary danger signals. Chart 14 shows the weekly year-over-year percent changes in the Wilshire 5000 stock price index. In the week ended November 27, 2015, the Wilshire 5000 stock price index was up 0.1% from a year ago. Notice that the growth in this stock price index has been trending lower to about zero in the past two years. Stock price inflation? Nope.
Chart 14
House price inflation? Maybe. Chart 15 shows the year-over-year percent changes and three-month annualized percent changes in the Federal Finance Housing Agency (FHFA) purchase-price index of houses. In September 2015, the year-over-year percent change in the FHFA index was 6.1%. The three-month annualized change was 6.2%. Although these rates of price appreciation are below those of 2013, they are not low in an historical context. For example, the median year-over-year percent change in FHFA price index from January 1991 through December 2006 was 5.9%. Nevertheless, none of the signs of excess in the housing market that were obvious to anyone with curiosity to look in the mid 2000s are present today.
Chart 15



In sum, the Fed is about to raise its policy interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in the face of a slowdown in U.S. nominal domestic spending, a labor market with still considerable slack,  and a preponderance of  evidence of low and slowing inflation rather than rising inflation. Other major economies are experiencing weak growth and low inflation. This is not an environment in which risk assets would likely be strong performers.

There is one ray of sunshine sneaking through the economic clouds. You guessed it – a pick up in the growth of thin-air credit. (Okay, everyone can knock back a shot of her/his beverage of choice. I mentioned thin-air credit.) As shown in Chart 16, growth in thin-air credit decelerated sharply during this past summer and into the early fall. This likely played a role in the deceleration of growth in nominal domestic demand now being experienced. But starting at the end of October, there has been a reacceleration in the growth of thin-air credit. If this year-over-year growth in the neighborhood of 6-3/4% were to persist, growth in nominal aggregate demand could pick up in the first quarter of 2016.
Chart 16
But, of course, one month does not a trend make. Moreover, The Fed’s imminent interest rate increase, at the margin, will be a negative for thin-air credit growth. Why? Firstly, in order to get the fed funds rate, the interest rate on interbank loans of reserves, to rise, the supply of reserves must fall relative to the demand for reserves. So, all else the same, the Fed needs to reduce the supply of reserves it provides in order to boost the fed funds rate. Reserves are one element of thin-air credit. If the fed funds rate rises, bank loan rates also will rise. At the higher bank loan rate, the quantity of bank loans demanded will fall. Hence, all else the same, bank credit growth, the other element of thin-air credit, will slow.

A quarter-point increase in the fed funds rate will have a negative effect on thin-air credit growth, but not a significant negative effect. Moreover, after the Fed gets the December 16th rate increase out of its system, it is unlikely to raise rates in quick succession thereafter. So a modest acceleration in the pace of economic activity is the more likely outcome in the first half of 2016 than a recession.

Paul L. Kasriel
Founder & Chief HR Officer, Econtrarian, LLC
Senior Economic & Investment Advisor
1-920-818-0236


40 comments:

  1. Your blog article is outstanding. Everything you have described is superb. I just want thank you for sharing the beneficial information. Please keep sharing more information.

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    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If we indeed get a modest acceleration in the pace of US economic activity in the first half of 2016, the concept of 'thin-air credit' will (once again) have proven its worth.

      However, in that case, the Fed will be encouraged to increase the fed funds rate even further (and the dollar will also rise further).

      However, the pick up in thin-air credit in late October/November may not continue as a 0.25% rate hike apparently requires the Fed to drain between $310B and $800B in liquidity: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-03/its-just-025-rate-hike-whats-big-deal-here-stunning-answer

      This doesn't bode well for the global economy and global stocks as the liquidation of emerging market FX reserves apparently has already sucked a lot of liquidity out of the system:

      http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user92183/imageroot/2015/11/CSFXReserves.png

      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-12-04/correlation-may-not-equal-causation-divergence-looks-bad-news

      Bear in mind that just as QE floods the market with liquidity, the liquidation of EM FX reserves sucks liquidity out and thus should exert a tightening effect even as DM central banks (minus the Fed) struggle to meet market expectations for easing. There are obviously a number of mitigating factors here, but the point is that the conditions which prompted EM to liquidate their reserves have not changed and indeed, things could get materially worse depending on how things shape up in Brazil and Turkey and depending on the trajectory of the Chinese economy (SDR-induced inflows or no, there’s still a hard landing and capital is still flowing the wrong way).

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  2. "The Fed does not consider asset prices a component of inflation, but I do."

    No, but it is well aware of the fact that its 'accommodating stance' has dangerously inflated asset prices.* If it weren't for this, I don't think that they would raise interest rates in the current circumstances.

    "Stock price inflation? Nope."

    That's a straw man/ridiculous form of self delusion. The fact that there is no year on year stock price inflation doesn't mean that stock prices haven't become dangerously '(over)inflated' (yet again) by ultra low interest rates and three rounds of 'QE'.

    http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Q-Ratio-and-Market-Valuation

    Housing bubble: http://www.oftwominds.com/photos2015/housing-bubble2a.png

    * Yellen, in July 2015: “The committee recognizes that low interest rates may provide incentives for some investors to ‘reach for yield,’ and those actions could increase vulnerabilities in the financial system to adverse events.”

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  3. Is the data to calculate thin-air credit available on the St Louis FRED database. I have been using TOTBKCR and WRESCRT but the data doesn't seem to line up. For instance I get a y-o-y growth of 5.3% for Nov'15 over Nov'14. I'm using monthly average values.

    Secondly using the above -- I get WRESCRT as 27.8% of total thin-air credit.


    Thanks for any help,


    MC

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  14. Hear my great testimony and i would want you to be part of it. i was financially down when i meet these classic hacker online that helped me with a PROGRAMMED BLANK CARD that can withdraw $5000 daily without no trace of it . i contacted me paid for the card and it was delivered to me,now am very rich and happy with my family thanks to Mr Martins for these great help. if you are having same financial difficulties please contact him today via email martinshackers22@gmail.com....

    ReplyDelete
  15. Meine Namen sind Maria Roland aus Vereinigten Staaten
    Frohe Weihnachten im Voraus Freunde, reich heute und das Risiko der Umwandlung Ihres eigenen Lebens. Versuchen Sie und erhalten Sie eine leere ATM-Karte heute von (MR BUCHANAN JASON) und zu den Glücklichen, die von diesen Karten profitieren. Diese PROGRAMMIERTE leere ATM Karte ist zum Hacken in jede mögliche Geldautomaschine überall in der Welt in der Lage. Ich habe über diese BLANK ATM CARD, als ich auf der Suche nach Job online vor etwa einem Monat .. Ich habe wirklich mein Leben für gut und jetzt kann ich sagen, ich bin reich, weil ein lebendes Zeugnis. Das wenige Geld, das ich an einem Tag mit dieser Karte bekomme, ist ungefähr $ 3.000.Every hin und wieder pumpt ich Geld in mein Konto. Obwohl illegal ist, gibt es keine Gefahr von gefangen, weil es so programmiert wurde, dass es nicht nachvollziehbar ist, es hat auch eine Technik, die es unmöglich macht, dass die CCTV Sie erkennen kann .. Für Details, wie zu bekommen Ihr heute, email die Hacker auf: Buchananjasonhackersworld@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  16. Finally got my debts of my neck and i have enough money saved for my Christmas shopping. It all happened as i stumbled into this email address davidbenjaminltd@outlook.com initially i was looking to get extra jobs to boost my salary and i found how the blank atm card from this company gives you more than $80,000 all in 1 month. At first i though it was another internet scheme until i saw several reviews of how this blank card from this company has changed the lives of many without hesitation i ordered for the card and in less than 3 days it was delivered to me and the agent showed me how it works and it was even tested its been just 3 weeks and everything seems a lot less stressful this company has really changed my life and standard of living. I would love you on this site to visit davidbenjaminltd@outlook.com and get a card today to ease that stress and get good money its so quick.

    ReplyDelete
  17. I found a way to live above my financial challenges after loosing my job with no hope of providing for my family. With Christmas approaching and still no hope i decided to go online in search for a job and i found posts about davidbenjaminltd@outlook.com and how they help provide blank atm card in less than 3 days and capable of making cash withdrawal up to $70,000 monthly. At first it sounded like a scam to me cos i saw some other reviews talking about how they lost money to some companies i just decided to give this a try as i was already down and out and i made all necessary payments and verily verily i got my card delivered at the exact date and its effectiveness was not short of what i was told its been 3 weeks of blissful usage and i decided to tell the world about this awesome experience. You can contact this company to get yours via davidbenjaminltd@outlook.com

    ReplyDelete
  18. Davidbenjaminltd@outlook.com is indeed the right place to get your blank
    ATM card. Much has been said about this company which i saw online about
    their reliability and certified services am reaffirming this because i have
    tested them too and they are trusted. I got my card 4 days ago and it took
    just 2 days for it to be delivered to me after i made all necessary
    payments. If you are tired of wasting your money an time on fake companies
    then davidbenjaminltd@outlook.com is the right place

    ReplyDelete
  19. Hello Everybody,
    My name is Mrs Sharon Sim. I live in Singapore and i am a happy woman today? and i told my self that any lender that rescue my family from our poor situation, i will refer any person that is looking for loan to him, he gave me happiness to me and my family, i was in need of a loan of S$250,000.00 to start my life all over as i am a single mother with 3 kids I met this honest and GOD fearing man loan lender that help me with a loan of S$250,000.00 SG. Dollar, he is a GOD fearing man, if you are in need of loan and you will pay back the loan please contact him tell him that is Mrs Sharon, that refer you to him. contact Dr Purva Pius,via email:(urgentloan22@gmail.com) Thank you.

    BORROWERS APPLICATION DETAILS


    1. Name Of Applicant in Full:……..
    2. Telephone Numbers:……….
    3. Address and Location:…….
    4. Amount in request………..
    5. Repayment Period:………..
    6. Purpose Of Loan………….
    7. country…………………
    8. phone…………………..
    9. occupation………………
    10.age/sex…………………
    11.Monthly Income…………..
    12.Email……………..

    Regards.
    Managements
    Email Kindly Contact: urgentloan22@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  20. Hello everyone,my name is Kate Johnson.I was able to hack my husband's phone remotely and gained access to all His texts and calls with the help of ghosthacker2351@gmail.com, he is reliable and if you require his services tell him I referred you.

    ReplyDelete
  21. Hello, My name is Amara Carr from Florida. I just feel like saying this to people who really want a Blank Atm Card. There is this new way of making money with a particular ATM Card called the Blank ATM card. I got one through the help of a hacking group called MEYER TRAVIS ATM HACKERS. This Blank ATM card is programmed to malfunction any ATM machine and CCTV cameras. Thereby allowing you to withdraw up to $ 10,000 daily from any ATM machine all over the world. So far i have being able to withdraw $ 600,000.00 from several ATM machines. Thought it is illegal, there's no risk of being caught. For those of us in need of financial stability, you can get more information about this Blank ATM card by contacting MEYER Travis Curtis ATM HACKERS now on their email: Atmhackers@aol.com. I got this Blank ATM card at a very unexpected low rate.Email them they we tell you more about it and also how much it cost for you to get it. or text +1 402 892 2486 And they also give out loan of 2 %.

    ReplyDelete
  22. Ever heard of the Blank ATM card capable of making cash withdrawal without being caught? I use to be a very poor lady, and life seems to be throwing up on me. So i was left with no choice than to extend my search, and i finally came across Shawbrook ATM Hackers. Though i had my doubts at first, because i have tried getting the card some time ago and i was ripped of my money. But i was left with no choice than to try again simply because i had a better understanding of the card from Shawbrook ATM Hackers. To my surprise, i got the blank card within a week. And with this card, i have been able to withdraw more than $100,000 already. I am using this medium to appreciate the good works of Shawbrook ATM Hackers, for giving the poor,hopeless and homeless a chance to keep on breathing, unlike those other fake hackers that keep on stealing from the poor only to make them more miserable. And to those of you out there having difficulties in life and have as well suffered from the hands of those fake hackers, here is another chance for you. Look no further but contact shawbrookblankatmhackers@outlook.com.

    ReplyDelete
  23. Hello everyone,my name is Kate Johnson.I was able to hack my husband's phone remotely and gained access to all His texts and calls with the help of ghosthacker2351@gmail.com, he is reliable and if you require his services tell him I referred you.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Hello everyone,my name is Kate Johnson.I was able to hack my husband's phone remotely and gained access to all His texts and calls with the help of ghosthacker2351@gmail.com, he is reliable and if you require his services tell him I referred you.

    ReplyDelete
  25. Easy way of becoming rich within a few hours is hacking an ATM machines with a blank card.. BE SMART AND BECOME RICH IN LESS THAN 3 DAYS. For more information on this, Email at donardmorrisworld27@gmail.com. Our aim is to help others become rich and free from financial hardship. contact email. donardmorrisworld27@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  26. BECOME RICH WITH THE USE OF BLANK ATM CARD

    BEST WAY TO HAVE GOOD AMOUNT TO START A GOOD BUSINESS or TO START LIVING A GOOD LIFE..... Hack and take money directly from any ATM Machine Vault with the use of ATM Programmed Card which runs in automatic mode.This is an opportunity you all have been waiting for. Get the new programmed ATM BLANK CARD that can hack any ATM MACHINE and withdraw money from any where in the world. You do not require anybody's account number before you can use it. Although you and I knows that its illegal but we are trying to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor in a situation where the rich are getting richer and the poor getting poorer. Get yours now and provide for your kids, make your kids happy by providing for all their needs. Email us on: (freeblankatm@gmail.com) There is no risk using it. It has SPECIAL FEATURES, that makes the machine unable to detect this very card,and its transaction can't be traced . To get your own programmed blank ATM card, contact us on: (freeblankatm@gmail.com) or you can text us on +13154292305. You can also watch our video on you-tube via: https://goo.gl/zJRK23

    ReplyDelete
  27. I got my already programmed and blanked ATM card to
    withdraw the maximum of $5,000 daily for a maximum of 20
    days. I am so happy about this because i got mine last week
    and I have used it to get $150,000. Georg Bednorz Hackers is giving
    out the card just to help the poor and needy though it is illegal but it
    is something nice and he is not like other scam pretending
    to have the blank ATM cards. And no one gets caught when
    using the card. get yours from Georg Bednorz Hackers today! Just send an email
    to georgbednorzhackers@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  28. I got my already programmed ATM card to withdraw the maximum of $50,000 daily for a maximum of 30 days. I am so happy about this because i got mine last week and I have used it to get $100,000. MR James Carl is giving out the card just to help the poor and needy. he also advice us to help the needy around us when we get the card so that God will keep blessing all of us. get yours from him now. Just send him an email: carljames845@gmail.com or +16026337400

    ReplyDelete
  29. I got my already programmed blank ATM card to withdraw a maximum of $5,000 daily for 30 days. I am so happy about this because i got mine last week and I have used it to get $100,000. Mrs OMON is giving out the card just to help the poor and needy though it is illegal but it is something nice and she is not like other scam pretending to have the blank ATM cards. And no one gets caught when using the card. get yours from her. Just send her an email onatmmachine581@gmail.com OR atmmachine352@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete