Tuesday, January 17, 2017

2017 -- Shades of 1937

January 17, 2017

2017 – Shades of 1937

As a result of some Fed actions taken in 1936 and 1937, the U.S. economy, after experiencing a robust economic recovery starting in early 1934, slipped back into a recession midyear 1937, which lasted through midyear 1938. Based on the recent slowdown in thin-air credit growth,  I believe that a significant slowdown in the growth of nominal and real U.S. domestic demand will commence in the first quarter of 2017. The duration and magnitude of this slowdown depends on the future behavior of thin-air credit.

Let’s briefly review the U.S. monetary history of 1936-1938. In response to the robust recovery the U.S. economy was experiencing and the high level of excess reserves the banking system was maintaining, the Fed, in a series of steps between August 1936 and May 1937, doubled the percentage of cash reserves banks were required to hold against their deposits. The Fed believed that these de jure excess reserves held by banks were de facto excess reserves. That is, the Fed did not believe that banks desired to hold the amount of de jure excess reserves that were in existence. If these reserves held by banks truly were in excess of what they wanted to hold, then it was surmised by the Fed that banks would engage in the creation of new credit for the economy by some multiple of the existing excess reserves. If this creation of new bank credit were to occur against a backdrop of an already robust economic expansion, the U.S. economy would be in danger of overheating.  As a result of this reasoning, the Fed chose to “sterilize” some of these excess reserves by converting them into required reserves.

As it turned out, with the experience of bank runs of the early 1930s still fresh in the memory of bank managers, a large proportion of the existing excess reserves were, in fact, desired to be held by banks. As a result, when the Fed decreed that a large portion of these excess reserves would become required reserves, banks attempted to restore their holdings of excess reserves. In this attempt, banks contracted their loans and investments – bank credit. Because only the Fed can increase or decrease total reserves, this banking system contraction in bank credit did not, in and of itself, increase total reserves. But what it did do was contract bank deposits, which in turn, reduced required reserves. For a given amount of total reserves, a reduction in required reserves implies an increase in excess reserves. Following the contraction in bank credit and the sharp slowdown in the growth of bank reserves, the U.S. economy entered a recession at midyear 1937. In sum, the Fed’s decision back then to double the reserve requirement ratio against bank deposits set in motion a sharp deceleration in the growth of thin-air credit that resulted in a U.S. recession.

Let’s fast forward about 80 years. The Fed has not raised required reserve ratios. But, as shown in Chart 1, the Fed has begun contracting an element of thin-air credit, the monetary base (cash reserves held by depository institutions plus currency in circulation). In 2014, the Fed began tapering its purchases of securities in the open market, which slowed the growth in the monetary base. In 2015, the Fed ceased altogether its securities purchase program and contracted the monetary base at the end of 2015 in order to push up the federal funds rate by 25 basis points. For reasons still a mystery to me, the Fed stepped up its contraction in the monetary base in the second half of 2016, culminating in a further contraction in December 2016 in order to push up the federal funds rate another 25 basis points.




Chart 1
Another major element of thin-air credit, credit created by commercial banks, after cruising along at robust growth rates in 2015 and most of 2016, suddenly decelerated sharply in Q4:2016. I am not aware of any new regulations or credit-quality concerns that would have motivated commercial banks to slow their acquisitions of loans and securities. Yes, short-maturity bank funding rates have crept up in the past two years in response to actual and expected increases in the federal funds rate. For example, in the week ended September 30, 2016, the average three-month LIBOR interest rate was 21 basis points higher than it was in the week ended July 1, 2016. If a 21 basis point increase in bank funding costs caused the quantity demanded of bank credit to slow as much as it did in November and December 2016, then the interest elasticity of bank credit demand is extraordinarily high. And if, in fact, the interest sensitivity of bank credit demand is so high, the Fed might want to take this into consideration in its federal funds rate targets going forward.
Chart 2
Okay, it is a mystery to me as to why the Fed contracted the monetary base as much as it did in 2016 and why bank credit growth fell off a cliff in Q4:2016, but as I amusingly remember hearing in so many corporate staff meetings – it is what it is. So, let’s combine bank credit with the monetary base to see what the behavior of this thin-air credit aggregate has been of late. This is presented in Chart 3. On a year-over-year basis, growth in the sum of commercial bank credit and the monetary base in December 2016 was 2.6%. To put this into historical context, from January 1960 through December 2016, the median year-over-year growth in monthly observations of the sum of commercial bank credit and the monetary base was 7.1%. In the three months ended December 2016, the annualized percentage change in this measure of thin-air credit was minus 0.6%.
Chart 3

So, there has been a deceleration in the growth of this measure of thin-air credit to a rate that is quite low compared to its longer-run median rate. So what? Chart 4 provides an answer to this question. Plotted in Chart 4 are year-over-year percent changes in quarterly observations of nominal Gross Domestic Purchases and of the sum of commercial bank credit and the monetary base. The year-over-year percent changes in the sum of commercial bank credit and the monetary base are advanced by one quarter in order to be consistent with my hypothesis that the behavior of thin-air credit leads or “causes” the behavior of nominal Gross Domestic Purchases. Gross Domestic Purchases are defined as Gross Domestic Product minus exports plus imports. The correlation coefficient between these two series from Q1:2012 through Q3:2016 is 0.71. If these two series were perfectly correlated, the correlation coefficient would be 1.00. So, although not a perfect relationship, there does appear to be a relatively close positive relationship between changes in this measure of thin-air credit and changes in nominal domestic purchases of goods and services. With the year-over-year growth in this measure of thin-air credit slowing from 3.9% in Q3:2016 to 2.6% in Q4:2016 (indicated by the Q1:2017 blue bar in Chart 4 because growth in thin-air credit is advanced by one quarter), this augurs poorly for growth in nominal Gross Domestic Purchases in Q1:2017.

Chart 4
If growth in U.S. domestic demand falters in Q1:2017, as “predicted” by the recent behavior of thin-air credit, then the Fed is unlikely to push the federal funds rate higher until it sees a recovery in demand growth. Even if the Fed holds off on raising the federal funds rate, it still is unlikely to step up growth in the monetary base component of thin-air credit in Q1:2017. As mentioned above, I am at a loss to explain the recent sharp deceleration in bank credit growth. But unless growth in this component of thin-air credit does re-accelerate, then very weak growth in total thin-air credit would likely persist through Q1:2017, which would have continued negative implications for growth in domestic demand for goods and services into Q2:2017.

The Fed’s actions of 1936-37 caused a sharp slowdown in the growth of thin-air credit, which resulted in the recession of 1937-38. It is too early for me to forecast a recession in 2017 because of the Fed’s disregard for the recent growth slowdown in thin-air credit. But I do believe investor expectations of U.S. economic growth will be disappointed in the first half of 2017. All else the same, this economic-growth disappointment has positive implications for U.S. investment grade bonds and negative implications for risk assets such as U.S. equities.

One factor that could stimulate thin-air credit growth would be a sharp increase in federal credit demand resulting from tax cuts and/or discretionary spending increases. This increased credit demand would put upward pressure on the structure of U.S interest rates. If the Fed were unwilling to allow the federal funds rate from rising under these circumstances, then both the monetary base and bank credit would rise in the face of the increased credit demand. It is not a question of if significant federal tax cuts are coming in the next two years, but when and how the Fed will react to them.

Paul L. Kasriel
Founder, Econtrarian, LLC
Senior Economic and Investment Advisor
1-920-818-0236

“For most of human history, it made good adaptive sense to be fearful and emphasize the negative; any mistake could be fatal”, Joost Swarte


69 comments:

  1. Outstanding assessment, and understandable, thank you!

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  2. Thank you very much Mr. Kasriel, your insight cuts through the noise like no other! In your next to last sentence of this month's commentary, you say, "If the Fed were unwilling to allow the federal funds rate from rising..." Could you please clarify, does this mean if the Fed held the overnight rate low and did not raise by .25% another 3 times this year as has been forecast?

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    We offer a wide range of financial services which includes: Business Planning, Commercial and Development Finance, Properties and Mortgages, Debt Consolidation Loans, Business Loans, Private loans, Home Refinancing Loans with low interest rate at 1.00% per annul for individuals, companies and corporate bodies. Get the best for your family and own your dream home as well with our General Loan scheme. Interested applicants should Contact us via email: PergoCF@cheerful.com ( PergoCF@qualityservice.com ) PergoCF@gmail.com

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    ReplyDelete
  18. Good Day Dear Loan Seeker,

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    :LOAN APPLICATION FORM:


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    ReplyDelete
  19. Good Day Dear Loan Seeker,

    Do you need an urgent financial credit * Very fast and direct transfer
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    Repayment starts eight months after you get the money bank account *
    Low interest rate of 2%
    * Long-term repayment (1-30 years) Height * Flexible *then monthly payment
    * How long will it be financed? After submitting the application
    * You can expect a preliminary answer less than 24 hours funding in
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    :LOAN APPLICATION FORM:


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    ReplyDelete
  20. Good Day Dear Loan Seeker,

    Do you need an urgent financial credit * Very fast and direct transfer
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    Repayment starts eight months after you get the money bank account *
    Low interest rate of 2%
    * Long-term repayment (1-30 years) Height * Flexible *then monthly payment
    * How long will it be financed? After submitting the application
    * You can expect a preliminary answer less than 24 hours funding in
    72-96 hours after receiving the information they need yours.

    If you are interested contact us via:
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    ReplyDelete
  21. Finding a legitimate loan lender (mrdonaldmooreloanfirm@gmail.com) have always been a huge problem to clients who have financial problem and in need of solution to it. The issue of credit and collateral are something that clients are always worried about when seeking a loan from a legitimate lender. But we have made that difference in the lending industry by offering loans to individual and public sector that are in need of financial Assistance in a low interest rate of 2%. Bad credit acceptable, The Terms and Conditions are very simple and considerate. You will never regret anything in this loan transaction because we will make you smile. Our company has recorded a lot of breakthroughs in the provision of first class financial services to our clients, especially in the area of Loan syndication and capital provision for individuals and companies.

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    ReplyDelete
  22. Good day everybody am Bianca D. Luevano By name I live at 930 Timbercrest Road Pump Station Three, AK 9970. I want to give thanks and a great appreciation to Star Loan Company for offering me loan for purchasing my house with a low interest rate. I want to give thanks to him for giving me this loan. My friends out there who needs loan for different purposes I advice you contact Star Loan Company for loan instead of falling in to hands of Scammers online. I'm happy today because of Mr Larry Scott Loan Company. So if you want to contact them for a loan you contact them on: starloansfirm@gmail.com
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    Bianca D. Luevano

    ReplyDelete
  23. Dear Sir/Madam, "LOAN AS FAST AS POSSIBLE WITHIN 2DAYS. hannahzaraloancompany", X-mas Loan, "House Loan,Business Loan at 2% interest rate.Interested Persons should contact Loan Officer via E-mail with the below information:",

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    ReplyDelete
  24. WE OFFER ALL KIND OF LOANS - APPLY FOR AFFORDABLE LOANS.

    Are you a business man or woman? Are you in any financial mess or Do you need funds to start up your own business? Do you need a loan to start a nice Small Scale and medium business? Do you have a low credit score and you are finding it hard to obtain capital loan from local banks and other financial institutes?. Interested applicants should Contact us via email: PergoCF@cheerful.com ( PergoCF@qualityservice.com ) PergoCF@gmail.com

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    ReplyDelete
  25. Do You need an urgent loan?
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    ReplyDelete
  26. UPDATE ON LOAN REQUIREMENT

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    ReplyDelete

  27. Are You seeking for an urgent Christmas loan? Have you be denied of a loan from your bank or any Financial Firm? Do you need financial assistance Do you need a loan to pay off your bills or buy a home, or Consolidate your debt and be debt free? Do you want to have a Business of your own and you need Financial Loan Help? Contact us for your fast reliable loan at a low interest rate of 3%. We are willing to help you out on either Business or Personal Loans, affordable repayment plan with good credit record. we Offer loan at affordable interest rate. if so contact Mr. Rojas Silva for more information ...Contact Email: forafinancialloancompany@gmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  28. Are you looking for financial freedom? Are you in debt, you need a loan to start a new business? Do you need an investor or private investor? or you financially crash, do you need a credit that buys a car or a house? Have you reject your bank in getting finance? Do you want to improve your financial results? You need a loan to pay off your bills? no more looking, we welcome you for a way to get all kinds of loans at a very favorable interest rate of 2% for others. For more information, contact us now (michaelsmithloanfunds@gmail.com)

    ReplyDelete
  29. UPDATE ON LOAN REQUIREMENT

    If you are in need of some financial support and you can pay back the loan at a given period.? *Need 100% financing contact Email : (bdsfn.com@gmail.com )
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    Mrs.Emilia FedorcakovaUPDATE ON LOAN REQUIREMENT

    If you are in need of some financial support and you can pay back the loan at a given period.? *Need 100% financing contact Email : (bdsfn.com@gmail.com )
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    ReplyDelete
  30. Do you need 100% Finance? I can service your financial need with less pay back problem that is why we fund you for just 2%. Whatever your circumstances, self employed, retired, have a poor credit rating, we could help. Flexible repayment over 2 to 20 years.Contact us at:monicafredcashloan@gmail.com

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    ReplyDelete
  31. How I Got My Desired Loan Amount From A Reliable Loan Company.

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    ReplyDelete
  32. Hello everyone,

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    ReplyDelete
  33. WE OFFER ALL KIND OF LOANS - APPLY FOR AFFORDABLE LOANS.

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    Our loans are well insured for maximum security is our priority, Our leading goal is to help you get the services you deserve, Our program is the quickest way to get what you need in a snap. Reduce your payments to ease the strain on your monthly expenses. Gain flexibility with which you can use for any purpose from vacations, to education, to unique purchases. Interested applicants should Contact us via email: PergoCF@cheerful.com ( PergoCF@qualityservice.com ) PergoCF@gmail.com

    We offer a wide range of financial services which includes: Business Planning, Commercial and Development Finance, Properties and Mortgages, Debt Consolidation Loans, Business Loans, Private loans, Home Refinancing Loans with low interest rate at 1.00% per annul for individuals, companies and corporate bodies. Get the best for your family and own your dream home as well with our General Loan scheme. Interested applicants should Contact us via email: PergoCF@cheerful.com ( PergoCF@qualityservice.com ) PergoCF@gmail.com

    WE OFFER ALL KIND OF LOANS - APPLY FOR AFFORDABLE LOANS.

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    Kindly write us back with the loan information;
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    - Loan amount needed:
    - Loan Duration:
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    - City / Country:
    - Telephone:
    - How Did You Hear About Us:

    If you are interested to get a loan then kindly write us with the loan requirement. Please, contact us for more information: PergoCF@qualityservice.com ( PergoCF@gmail.com ) PergoCF@cheerful.com
    Yours Sincerely,
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    We look forward to hear from you ASAP

    Interested applicants should Contact us via email: PergoCF@cheerful.com

    ReplyDelete
  34. How I Got My Desired Loan Amount From A Reliable Loan Company.

    My name is Valentina Slawson a single mother with two kids from Chicago Illinois. I want use this medium to give thanks and appreciation to Mr Christopher Kennedy of Unamay Loan Finance Ltd with contact number +1(858)299-1101, for granting me a loan $47,000 to purchase a house of my own with a low interest rate of 3%. I also want to reach out to the general public and to everyone in need of a loan for various purposes I'll advice you contact Unamay Loan Finance Ltd so as not to fall into wrong hands while searching of a liable loan. Contact them today via email: unamayloanfinance@outlook.com or unamayloanfinanceltd@financier.com.

    ReplyDelete
  35. IQ FINANCE PLC provides a full financial planning service to both the commercial and domestic markets. At IQ FINANCE PLC we believe that financial planning is about two things: creating wealth and protecting wealth. These two objectives are at the heart of everything we do. And, as a member of IQ FINANCE Services, we give you a small-company service but with a large-company set up – the best of both worlds.

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    Contact us for more details on our terms and procedure of transaction.

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    ReplyDelete
  36. Are you looking for urgent loan? Look no further. Evergreen Loan & Investments Group is a company into pure loan and debt financing at ROI returns of only 1.8%. We can finance up to the amount of $50,000,000.00 (fifty million USD). Contact us for your instant loan process.
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    Regards,
    Management.
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    ReplyDelete
  37. WE OFFER ALL KIND OF LOANS - APPLY FOR AFFORDABLE LOANS.

    Are you a business man or woman? Are you in any financial mess or Do you need funds to start up your own business? Do you need a loan to start a nice Small Scale and medium business? Do you have a low credit score and you are finding it hard to obtain capital loan from local banks and other financial institutes?. Interested applicants should Contact us via email: PergoCF@cheerful.com ( PergoCF@qualityservice.com ) PergoCF@gmail.com

    Our loans are well insured for maximum security is our priority, Our leading goal is to help you get the services you deserve, Our program is the quickest way to get what you need in a snap. Reduce your payments to ease the strain on your monthly expenses. Gain flexibility with which you can use for any purpose from vacations, to education, to unique purchases. Interested applicants should Contact us via email: PergoCF@cheerful.com ( PergoCF@qualityservice.com ) PergoCF@gmail.com

    We offer a wide range of financial services which includes: Business Planning, Commercial and Development Finance, Properties and Mortgages, Debt Consolidation Loans, Business Loans, Private loans, Home Refinancing Loans with low interest rate at 1.00% per annul for individuals, companies and corporate bodies. Get the best for your family and own your dream home as well with our General Loan scheme. Interested applicants should Contact us via email: PergoCF@cheerful.com ( PergoCF@qualityservice.com ) PergoCF@gmail.com

    WE OFFER ALL KIND OF LOANS - APPLY FOR AFFORDABLE LOANS.

    Please, contact us for more information: PergoCF@qualityservice.com ( PergoCF@gmail.com ) PergoCF@cheerful.com
    Kindly write us back with the loan information;
    - Complete Name:
    - Loan amount needed:
    - Loan Duration:
    - Purpose of loan:
    - City / Country:
    - Telephone:
    - How Did You Hear About Us:

    If you are interested to get a loan then kindly write us with the loan requirement. Please, contact us for more information: PergoCF@qualityservice.com ( PergoCF@gmail.com ) PergoCF@cheerful.com
    Yours Sincerely,
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    We look forward to hear from you ASAP

    Interested applicants should Contact us via email: PergoCF@cheerful.com

    ReplyDelete
  38. Hello everyone, My name is Ketesha Frank, I am from the Alabama, United State, am here to testify of how i got my loan from Mr JOHN WILLIAMS Loan Company{ ( johnloanfirm2@gmail.com) } after i applied Two times from various loan lenders who claimed to be lenders right here this forum, i thought their lending was real and i applied but they never gave me loan until a friend of mine introduce me to Mr JOHN WILLIAMS Loan Company, who promised to help me with a loan of my desire and he really did as he promised without any form of delay, I had doubts but i never seize to believe. I never thought there are still reliable loan lenders until i met Mr JOHN WILLIAMS, who really helped me with my loan and changed my life for the better. I know there are still many good lenders out there but i would advise you to try Mr JOHN WILLIAMS Loan Company, his caring and understanding. don't know if you are in need of an urgent loan also or want funding for your projects, So feel free to contact Mr JOHN WILLIAMS Loan Company his email address is ( johnloanfirm2@gmail.com)

    ReplyDelete
  39. Welcome To PETER JOHNSON LOAN COMPANY
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    ReplyDelete
  40. Hello everyone, My name is Ketesha Frank, I am from the Alabama, United State, am here to testify of how i got my loan from Mr JOHN WILLIAMS Loan Company{ ( johnloanfirm2@gmail.com) } after i applied Two times from various loan lenders who claimed to be lenders right here this forum, i thought their lending was real and i applied but they never gave me loan until a friend of mine introduce me to Mr JOHN WILLIAMS Loan Company, who promised to help me with a loan of my desire and he really did as he promised without any form of delay, I had doubts but i never seize to believe. I never thought there are still reliable loan lenders until i met Mr JOHN WILLIAMS, who really helped me with my loan and changed my life for the better. I know there are still many good lenders out there but i would advise you to try Mr JOHN WILLIAMS Loan Company, his caring and understanding. don't know if you are in need of an urgent loan also or want funding for your projects, So feel free to contact Mr JOHN WILLIAMS Loan Company his email address is ( johnloanfirm2@gmail.com)

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  41. RacinE WI, ABD'de yaşıyorum ve bugün mutlu bir kadın mıyım? Kendime, hayatımı ve ailemi bir iş kredisi ile değiştirebilecek herhangi bir Kredi vermeyi önerdim, onlara borç arayan herkese danışacağım. Eğer krediniz ihtiyacı duyuyorsanız ve krediyi geri ödemek için% 100 eminseniz lütfen onlarla iletişime geçin ve onlara Bayan Brittany Nelson'ın size onları yönlendirdiğini söyleyin. creditkredi@hotmail.com

    ReplyDelete
  42. Testimony of financial breakthrough from GOD through the help of Funding Circle Loan INC. (fundingcapitalplc@gmail.com OR Call/Text +14067326622)...

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    ReplyDelete

  43. Do you need a 2% loan in case you do, contact us for all types of loans today

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  44. UPDATE ON LOAN REQUIREMENT

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  52. Getting a legitimate loan have always been a huge problem To clients who have financial problem and need solution to it. The issue of credit and collateral are something that clients are always worried about when seeking a loan from a legitimate lender. But.. we have made that difference in the lending industry. We can arrange for a loan from the range of $5,500. to $500,000.as low as 1% interest Kindly respond immediately to this email: bdsfn.com@gmail.com

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  54. HOW I SUCCESSFULLY GOT MY XMAS LOAN.

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  55. HOW I SUCCESSFULLY GOT MY XMAS LOAN.

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  57. We work according to clear, flexible, transparent and easy to understand terms. We offer very low interest rates in relation to the slowdown of economic activity (recession) in most countries in the world. You may have bad credit, Our company now offers affordable interest rate loan, so what do you need funds to boost your business? Or are you in need of money for some personal purposes? Why not contact us now that we offer individuals and legal loans at an interest rate of 3% for a maximum period of 25 years. Interested applicant can contact us via e-mail now: paulsonloaninvestment@gmail.com

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  59. Hello everyone am here to testify how i got my loan from Mr.Henry walter after i applied several times from various loan lenders who claimed to also testify right in this forum,i thought the testimonies where real and i applied but they never gave me loan. I was in need of an urgent loan to start a business and i applied from various loan lenders who promised to help but they never gave me the loan. Until a friend of mine introduce me to Mr. Henrywalter who promised to help me and indeed he did as he promised without any form of delay .I never thought there are still reliable loan lenders until i met Mr. Henry walter,who are indeed helped with the loan and changed my belief. I don't know if you are in any way in need of a genuine and urgent loan,free feel to contact Mr. Henry walter via his email {
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  61. WE AT THE WINONA MILLARAY LOAN FOUNDATION IS CURRENTLY CONDUCTING AN END OF THE YEAR GIVE AWAY BONANZA PACKAGE TO ALL OUR CLIENTS BOTH OLD AND NEW THAT ARE CURRENTLY LOOKING TO GET A NO UPFRONT FEE LOAN FOR THIS SEASON AS IT IS JUST %2 PERCENT GUARANTEED LOAN ORDER .

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  62. Hello are you in need of a Christmas loan or a loan to pay your bills, start up a new business,buy a house or car? Have you been denied loans by your bank because you have no collateral or a bad credit score,our company is a government registered loan company with registration number.2005/016196/07 we offer all kind of loans both personal and business loan at a lowest interest rate of 3% short and long terms base, our process of getting a loan from our company is fast reliable and easy contact us today via Email: sunloancompanyfinancialservice@gmail.com

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